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Bayes Theorem is probably one of the most important things any rational person can learn, because so many of our debates and disagreements that we shout at each other about are because we don't understand how our beliefs work. Bayes Theorem goes back to the 18th century, Thomas Bayes, and essentially it's a formula which asks: when we are presented with the evidence for something, how much should we believe it? Bayes Theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed. They are probabilities. Our
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