Hot inflation has raised the stakes of President Trump’s plans to escalate his use of tariffs on the country’s biggest trading partners, risking even higher consumer prices and pushing back the prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates soon.

4.8%. That’s how much the U.S.’ weighted average tariff rate would be if Trump implemented the country-level strategy, Deutsche Bank economists led by Justin Weidner estimated in a Monday note. That’s a 3.3 percentage-point increase from the 1.5% effective rate U.S. imports had in 2022, according to the World Bank.

The gain in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure will probably average nearly 2.7% during the four quarters starting in April, according to economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer.